The aviation sector has always symbolised progress and global connection. Yet it has also carried a heavy environmental impact. As airlines work to reduce their carbon footprint, a new solution is gaining momentum. Sustainable Aviation Fuel is emerging as the single most impactful change in aviation’s journey toward cleaner skies. For the bioethanol industry, this shift represents one of the biggest market opportunities of the next decade.
Understanding Sustainable Aviation Fuel
Sustainable Aviation Fuel is a low-carbon alternative to traditional fossil-based jet fuel. It is produced from feedstocks such as used cooking oil, agricultural residues, municipal waste and for the bioethanol industry, ethanol itself.
SAF can lower lifecycle carbon emissions by up to 80 percent compared to conventional aviation fuel. A major advantage is that SAF works as a drop-in replacement, meaning it can be used in existing aircraft engines and infrastructure with no modifications.
Aviation contributes about 2 to 3 percent of global carbon emissions. With the industry targeting net-zero by 2050, SAF has become the most practical and scalable solution for long-term decarbonisation.
The Explosive Growth of the SAF Market
The growth trajectory of SAF is unlike anything the aviation fuel industry has seen. Global production rose from roughly 0.5 million tonnes in 2023 to 1 million tonnes in 2024. In 2025, output is projected to reach 2 million tonnes.
The financial forecasts are even more compelling. The global SAF market, valued at 1.43 billion dollars in 2024, is projected to touch 59.98 billion dollars by 2034. This represents a forty-fold expansion within a decade.
India’s potential is equally remarkable. The Indian SAF market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 62.50 percent through 2034, reaching between 3.5 billion and 8.14 billion dollars by 2035.
For the bioethanol sector, the ethanol-to-jet pathway is a breakthrough. It represents a market opportunity estimated at 87 billion gallons, directly linking current ethanol production capabilities with the growing demand for aviation fuel.
Regulatory Mandates Driving Adoption
Government mandates are accelerating SAF adoption around the world. The European Union’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation requires a minimum of 2 percent SAF blending by 2025 and 6 percent by 2030, with a long-term target of 70 percent by 2050.
India has introduced a policy that mandates 1 percent SAF blending, with plans to increase this to 5 percent by 2030. With India expected to add nearly 2,500 new aircraft in the next two decades, the demand for SAF will rise sharply.
India’s Strategic Position in the SAF Market
India is well positioned to become a major global hub for SAF production. The country has an abundant supply of biomass, with more than 200 million tonnes of agricultural residue available annually. This feedstock potential makes large-scale SAF production both viable and scalable.
India’s robust bioethanol industry provides another advantage. With ethanol production capacity reaching 1,623 crore litres in 2023 to 2024, the foundation for ethanol-to-jet fuel pathways is already established.
Consultancies estimate that India has the potential to produce 19 to 24 million tonnes of SAF each year. Deloitte projects that India could reach 8 to 10 million tonnes by 2040, supported by investments between 70 and 85 billion dollars.
Technology and Production Pathways
The alcohol-to-jet pathway is especially promising for the bioethanol sector. In this process, ethanol is dehydrated to ethylene and then converted into aviation-grade fuel through a series of refining steps including oligomerisation, hydrogenation and fractionation. The pathway allows producers to utilise existing assets while entering a high-demand market.
Indian refiners are already moving in this direction. Indian Oil Corporation has become the first Indian company to receive ISCC CORSIA certification for SAF production at the Panipat Refinery. The company aims to produce 30,000 tonnes of SAF from used cooking oil by 2026.
Economic Opportunities for Bioethanol Producers
For bioethanol producers, SAF offers a powerful combination of benefits. Premium pricing creates healthier margins compared to conventional fuels. Diversification into aviation fuel opens up a new revenue stream with long-term stability. Airlines across the world are seeking multi-year SAF supply agreements to meet their sustainability commitments, creating predictable demand for producers.
The investment required to expand into ethanol-to-jet production is significantly lower for existing facilities, making the transition financially attractive.
Challenges and the Road Ahead
Despite its strong momentum, the SAF ecosystem faces challenges. Feedstock cost and availability, capital requirements and stringent aviation fuel standards all require careful planning. The regulatory environment is evolving quickly, and producers will need strong technical and policy expertise to navigate it.
However, India’s rapidly growing aviation sector, rising global demand and continuous technological advancement indicate a clear and positive direction for the SAF market.
Conclusion
Sustainable Aviation Fuel represents one of the most significant opportunities for the bioethanol industry in decades. With the global SAF market projected to reach 60 billion dollars by 2034 and India’s market growing at over 62 percent annually, the scale of potential growth is immense.
For bioethanol producers, SAF offers high-value diversification, stronger margins, long-term contracts and alignment with global climate goals. The alcohol-to-jet pathway provides a direct and scalable route into a rapidly expanding market. As global aviation continues to grow, the shift toward sustainable fuels will reshape the industry, and bioethanol will be at the heart of this transition.
